Zero Risk Bias

A friend of mine, miserable and exhausted from her job, underpaid compared to colleagues elsewhere, had been offered a role at another practice.

She wasn’t taking it.

When I asked why, she said something I’ve heard dozens of times in various forms. “But what if it doesn’t work out? What if the new place is worse? What if I hate the people? What if they don’t like me? At least I know what I’ve got here.”

Her job now was familiar, it was known, and in her mind, that made it safer than the unknown, even though the unknown came with better pay, better conditions, and significantly better prospects in the long run.

This is Zero Risk Bias in action, and it could be costing you more than you realise.

Zero Risk Bias is the tendency to prefer options that eliminate one type of risk completely, even when alternatives would reduce overall risk more effectively or produce much better outcomes.

We’re so focused on getting one particular risk down to zero that we ignore the bigger picture of what we’re actually risking by staying where we are.

Some people only do things if they perceive the risk to them is zero. Even when the actual risk is minor, they’d rather put up with what they’ve got, however painful that is, than take the perceived risk of striving for something new. They’re not making a rational calculation about probability and outcomes. They’re making an emotional decision dressed up as risk management.

I see this constantly in medical practice. Patients want everything guaranteed 100% before starting something new. A new medication, a new treatment, a new approach to managing their condition. They want absolute certainty that it’ll work, that there’ll be no side effects, that nothing unexpected will happen.

My answer is always the same. I can never guarantee anything 100%, and there’s always a risk in almost everything we choose to do. The question isn’t whether there’s risk. The question is which risk you’re willing to take, because doing nothing is also a choice with its own set of risks attached.

The risk of doing anything is never zero. This is just basic reality, though people seem remarkably resistant to accepting it. Sitting in a room all day doing nothing may seem risk-free, but it’s not. Your muscles atrophy, your mental health can deteriorate, your opportunities disappear, and time passes while your life stays exactly where it is.

Sometimes, due to Zero Risk Bias, you’re more willing to accept doing nothing than making the changes you need to make, even when doing nothing is objectively far riskier. You’re trading the possibility of failure for the certainty of staying stuck, and somehow that feels like the safer bet.

If you decide to take life by the scruff of the neck, if you decide to push yourself outside your comfort zone, this will never be risk-free. Ever. There’s no version of personal growth that comes with a guarantee and a money-back warranty. But here’s what happens when you actually do it. You start to grow into that new life, you adapt, and you accept those risks associated with your new situation as your new normal.

What felt terrifying six months ago becomes Tuesday. The thing you couldn’t imagine doing becomes something you do without thinking about it. Your capacity expands, your tolerance for uncertainty increases, and suddenly you’re looking at challenges that would’ve paralysed you before and thinking, “Yeah, I can handle that.”

We choose the certainty of our present situation over the risk of doing something different, even when our present situation is making us miserable. The devil you know feels safer than the devil you don’t, even when the devil you know is destroying you and the devil you don’t might actually be an opportunity in disguise.

Change brings a different type of stress. This is true. New problems replace old problems, and yes, that’s uncomfortable. But hidden in those new problems is the catalyst you need for self-growth to happen, and this absolutely needs to happen if you’re going to take your life to the next level. Old problems keep you where you are. New problems push you forward.

If you’re new to cognitive biases, there’s no better one to introduce you to first than Zero Risk Bias, because it’s probably running more of your decisions than you realise. Every time you say “I’ll wait until things are more stable,” that’s Zero Risk Bias.

So if you think it’s safe to retreat back into the certainty of your four walls with a head full of worries and regret, then do so. I’d say that this is by far the riskier alternative than the path of personal growth. As they say, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Ask yourself what is the risk if you do nothing, what wouldn’t happen if you didn’t do what you need to do, and then ask yourself what would happen if you did it? Remember, the risk is never zero, and there’s not always safety in doing nothing.

Further reading

• Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
• Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (2002). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment.
• Duckworth, A. (2016). Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance.
• Heath, C., & Heath, D. (2010). Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard.