The Second Order Effect

You’re willing to do what it takes to succeed.

You’ll work harder. You’ll sacrifice sleep. You’ll put in the hours. You’re ready for the challenge, the difficulty, the effort. But here’s the question you haven’t asked yourself: are you ready to accept the effect it will have on those around you?

This is the Second Order Effect, and it’s why most people quit before they succeed.

The Ripple You Didn’t See Coming

What you do will have an effect on you, but it will also have an effect on those around you. The question is whether you’re willing to do whatever it is you need to do AND ready to accept the effect it will have on everyone else.

The effect your action has on everyone else and the response you get is called a second order effect. If you start down one path, you need to leave another path behind. You may need to leave others on that old path behind too.

The second order effect means you might outgrow your old life. Or you may need to leave others behind. This is the consequence nobody talks about when they’re selling you the dream of change.

Research on social networks and behaviour change shows that major personal transformations almost always disrupt existing relationship patterns (Christakis & Fowler, 2009). You don’t change in isolation. Your change forces everyone around you to adapt or resist.

Every Solution Creates New Problems

As Karl Popper put it, every solution of a problem raises new unsolved problems. This is the essence of second-order thinking.

You solve the problem of being broke by starting a business. Now you have the problem of managing employees and dealing with difficult clients. You solve the problem of being unhealthy by getting fit. Now you have the problem of people treating you differently and old friends feeling uncomfortable around you.

I know a person who became extremely successful; her success created problems she hadn’t anticipated. Her husband felt threatened. Some of her friends stopped inviting her to social events. People she’d known for years treated her like a stranger. She’d solved one problem and created five new ones.

Social disruption is a common reason weight-loss changes don’t stick, alongside the diet itself. You can handle the diet. You can’t always handle everyone else’s reaction to your diet, or the ongoing life you need to lead to keep the weight off. This again is the second-order effect.

The Ecosystem Shift

We adapt to our surroundings to survive. If you want new surroundings, you need to adapt. You need to change and adapt to that new ecosystem. The second-order effect also dictates that you may no longer fit into your old ecosystem, and you may need to find a new one.

For example, if you start earning significantly more money, your old friends may become jealous or start making comments about how you’ve changed. You probably haven’t changed that much, but your circumstances have, and you may no longer fit the role they’d assigned you. You’ve disrupted the social equilibrium.

You stop drinking to get healthier. Suddenly, your social circle shrinks noticeably, because much of it was built around pubs. You didn’t just quit drinking. You quit an entire social ecosystem.

Research on social identity theory shows that when you change your behaviours, you often change your group memberships, which can trigger identity threat in both you and the groups you’re leaving (Tajfel & Turner, 1979). You’re not just changing yourself. You’re redefining who ‘we’ is.

The Ecology Check

Some people are not willing to accept the second-order effects, and that’s why they fail. There’s a technique some coaches use, sometimes called an ‘ecology check’ — the term comes from NLP coaching, though the underlying practice needs no particular framework to justify it. As part of helping a person make a decision, you ask them whether they’re willing to accept the consequences of their planned action.

Is what you want really acceptable to you? Can you live with the consequences of that action? Take yourself into your future self. Who and what have you left behind? What sacrifices have you made to get there? Can you live with yourself? Can you sustain the change?

You need to have congruence with the effect your actions will have. Second-order effects are something you may not have bargained for.

People who anticipate and plan for second-order effects tend to be more likely to maintain behaviour change than those who don’t. Foresight prevents sabotage.

The Real Cost of Success

‘I want a better job,’ you might say. But are you willing to get up and go to college every day? Are you willing to study for hours? Are you willing to start from the bottom and work your way up to that great job through hard work, years of training, and commitment?

Because most people aren’t prepared to do what it takes. They want the first-order effect without the second-order consequences.

Running a three-hour marathon or a sub-10 Ironman sounds great. But the second-order effect is the training: getting up at 5am to swim, the endless hours on the roads running and cycling, and the sacrifice of the people in your life as they miss having you around when you’re out training. Your weekends disappear. Your social life shrinks. Your family sees less of you.

The difference between good and great is often the willingness to accept these second-order sacrifices. Everyone wants to be great. Not everyone wants to pay what great costs.

When Second Order Dwarfs First Order

Life is complex. Sometimes the second-order effect dwarfs the first-order effect. You make decisions without thinking of the consequences.

Stand on your tiptoes to get a better view, and before you know it, everyone’s doing the same. You haven’t improved your view. You’ve just made everyone work harder for the same result.

You can have a huge effect on your environment. Sometimes you don’t pencil in this effect. It doesn’t fit with who you were and where you are. You thought you were just changing yourself. You were actually changing your entire world.

This is systems thinking in miniature: most personal change initiatives run into trouble because people underestimate the wider consequences of their actions. You’re not a separate entity. You’re part of an ecosystem.

The Next Level Problem

As Henry Kissinger observed, each success only buys an admission ticket to a more difficult problem. This is the second-order effect in action.

You solve the problem of not having enough money. Now you have the problem of managing wealth. You solve the problem of being unknown. Now you have the problem of managing attention. You solve the problem of not having options. Now you have the problem of choosing between them.

Each level of success unlocks new problems. The question is whether you’re willing to trade your current problems for new ones. Because that’s what change is. Not the elimination of problems, but the exchange of one set of problems for another.

Research on hedonic adaptation shows that solving problems doesn’t necessarily increase happiness, because new problems replace old ones (Brickman & Campbell, 1971). You get what you want, only to discover it comes with complications you didn’t want.

What You Need to Do

Before you commit to any major change, ask yourself about second-order effects. What will this cost beyond the obvious costs? Who will be affected? What relationships will change? What new problems will this create? If you’re weighing a big decision right now, it’s worth reading this alongside Getting to the Point of Full Commitment, which covers the same ground from the other direction — counting the cost before you commit.

Don’t let the answers stop you. Just let them prepare you. Go in with eyes open. Know what you’re trading away. Accept it consciously rather than being blindsided by it later.

The people who succeed aren’t the ones who avoid second-order effects. They’re the ones who accept them. They know that growth hurts. They know that change disrupts. They know that leaving the old ecosystem means some people won’t follow.

And they do it anyway. Because the first-order effect is worth the second-order cost.

Further reading

• Brickman, P., & Campbell, D. T. (1971). Hedonic relativism and planning the good society.
• Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2009). Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives.
• Kissinger, H. (1979). White House Years.
• Popper, K. R. (1963). Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.
• Tajfel, H., & Turner, J. C. (1979). An integrative theory of intergroup conflict.